If Trump Shuts The Border, Say Goodbye To Avocado (And Millions Of Jobs)

If President Donald Trump follows through closing the border, the US could run out of avocados within 3 weeks, threatening the millennial way of life as well as keto dieters across the country who rely on avocado toasts and salted avocados, respectively. “You couldn’t pick a worse time of year because Mexico supplies virtually 100 percent of the avocados in the U.S. right now,” Steve Barnard, president and chief executive of Mission Produce.

In addition to an avocado-less life, and perhaps more importantly, the effects of a closed border could be disastrous for both Mexico and the United States businesses and consumers. Though it remains unclear exactly what Trump’s plans to close the border are, a complete shutdown could disrupt millions of legal border crossings as well as billions of dollars in trade. In fact, estimates show US-Mexico trade amount to $137 billion in food imports alone.

Further reading: Trump’s Tweet Gets Immigration, Mexico, Central America And The Southern Border Wrong

@galerieperrotinThe US Chamber of Commerce says “annual U.S. goods exports to Mexico exceed those to China by more than $140 billion ($265 billion vs. $121 billion in 2018). In fact, U.S. goods exports to Mexico reached the highest level on record in 2018.”

@devour.tacosUS consumers would invariably be affected considering nearly half of all imported US vegetables and 40% of imported fruits are grown in Mexico, according to this Administration’s own data. This may go shortages to surging prices in limes, tomatoes, cucumbers, blackberries, and raspberries as all these products come from Mexico.

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Trump has double down on his threat to close the border, blaming Mexico for not stopping the flow of Central American immigration, though Mexico has zero obligation to do so, anyway. Trump seems to believe Mexico, as a concept, benefits much from trading. However, Mexico as a country (or the US, for that matter) wins nothing, since trade mostly affects private citizens, not governments. 

However, this doesn’t mean a closed border wouldn’t affect average Mexicans and Americans. Aside from the way it can affect you as a consumer, and as much as you think you could do without guacamole this Cinco de Mayo, the truth of the matter is everyday American citizens would be threatened as well. The US Chamber of Commerce is saying, considering the billion dollar trade that goes on everyday, that closing the border would be “an unmitigated economic debacle” that would threaten 5 million American jobs.

Consider the U.S. auto industry, which is prospering today. Production has doubled over the past decade, it exports more than any other industry, and it employs nearly 50% more Americans than it did in 2011.

They also explained that “from an economic standpoint, closing our doors to the $1.7 billion dollars in daily goods trade with Mexico would be an unforced error that would inflict lasting damage on U.S. markets and economic growth.” Also, Mexico is the largest importer of US exports of refined fuels, some of which rely on rail to go from one place to the other. Does this mean rail terminals would be affected by closures? So, considering the above: is a fabricated border crises worth all of this? 

@thrivemags

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