In the U.S., early election results often don’t tell the whole story. Two phenomena, the “red mirage” and the “blue shift,” explain why initial counts may appear to favor Republicans before eventually swinging toward Democrats as more votes are counted.
Understanding the “Red Mirage”
At the start of the vote count, results from rural areas, which tend to lean Republican, often give Republicans (represented by red) an apparent lead. This is called the “red mirage.” However, as votes from urban centers and mail-in ballots—traditionally favoring Democrats—are gradually counted, this lead may diminish or even reverse.
In 2020, for instance, Donald Trump declared an early victory before all votes had been tallied, using the “red mirage” as grounds to claim fraud when results later began to favor Joe Biden as mail-in ballots, mostly from Democratic voters, were counted.
The “Blue Shift”
As the night progresses, a “blue shift” typically occurs. This is when the count of urban and mail-in ballots, which often lean Democratic, narrows or overturns the early Republican lead. This shift has been seen in recent elections and is expected again this year, though experts believe it might be less pronounced than in 2020.
Read also: Why Are Republicans Red and Democrats Blue? Here’s How It Happened
Why Does This Happen?
In the United States, each state counts and reports its votes at its own pace, creating a decentralized electoral process. Some states, like Florida, process mail-in ballots before Election Day, while others, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, only start counting them on Election Day, causing a delay. Additionally, rural areas tend to report faster than densely populated cities, which have more complex counting processes.
What to Expect in This Year’s Election
With a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, a clear winner may not be declared on election night. Experts advise patience, as we may still see the familiar pattern of an initial “red mirage” followed by a “blue shift,” albeit perhaps less dramatic than in 2020. The GOP has also encouraged more early and mail-in voting among its supporters, which could contribute to a less drastic shift.
However, urban and mail-in voting is still expected to boost Harris’s numbers later in the evening, meaning the final result might not be known immediately. As election experts say, “The results will come in due time, but likely not on election night.”
This article was originally written in Spanish by Cora Bravo in Cultura Colectiva
