If you’re a beauty enthusiast, or enjoy buying beauty products at ULTA, Sephora, or Target, your beloved skincare, makeup, or shampoo might soon come with a heftier price tag. The reason? As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as president, he’s signaling plans for sweeping tariffs that could impact everything from car parts to cosmetics.
During his previous term, Trump enacted tariffs on $380 billion worth of goods, targeting products imported from countries like China.
Now, his 2024 campaign promised even more aggressive tariffs, including a proposed 10–20% tax on all imports and as much as 60–100% on goods from China. Just this week, he shared on Truth Social that tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could take effect on his very first day back in office.
While the exact details of these policies are still unfolding, experts warn that these measures could have a ripple effect across industries, including beauty. “The prediction is pretty unambiguous, and it’s that prices would go up,” says Philip Rothman, Ph.D., an economics professor at East Carolina University.
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How Tariffs Could Hit the Beauty Industry
The U.S. imports nearly $4 trillion worth of goods annually, including countless ingredients, packaging materials, and finished beauty products. Tariffs are essentially taxes on these imports, which could lead to higher prices for beauty products at checkout.
Imported goods like skincare and makeup from Europe or Asia might see price increases of 10–60%. That $60 moisturizer you love? Under a 20% tariff, it could jump to $72. And it’s not just foreign-made products. Many “American-made” items rely on imported ingredients or packaging, meaning those costs could rise too.
For instance, plant-based oils like coconut and palm oil, frequently used in foundations and lipsticks, are often sourced from tropical regions. Similarly, exotic perfume ingredients from places like Madagascar could drive up prices.
Take In Mind Packaging
Packaging is another area poised to take a hit, because of course, many beauty brands source affordable bottles, tubes, and jars from China. “Packaging is already a substantial portion of the cost of making a cosmetic,” says independent cosmetic chemist Perry Romanowski. A significant increase in packaging costs could affect everything from makeup to haircare.
Small beauty businesses, in particular, may feel the squeeze, as they lack the financial resources to absorb costs or lobby for tariff exemptions. Larger corporations, like e.l.f. Beauty, have already implemented strategies to mitigate past tariffs, such as diversifying suppliers and tweaking manufacturing processes.
Will I Notice a Difference?
Tariffs could lead to subtle changes in your favorite products. Beauty companies might reformulate items to use cheaper or locally sourced ingredients, which could affect texture, scent, or performance. Others might quietly reduce product sizes while keeping prices steady—a phenomenon known as “shrinkflation.”
For consumers, this means you might pay more for products or notice changes in your favorite formulas. As economist Betsey Stevenson points out, “If you notice the formula is not the same as it used to be, don’t be surprised.”
What Now?
For now, the beauty industry is playing its cards close to the chest. Major brands and retailers, including Sephora and Ulta, have declined to comment on how potential tariffs might affect their businesses. The Personal Care Products Council, a leading beauty trade group, has previously opposed tariffs, citing the burden they place on consumers shopping for essentials like shampoo and deodorant.
While it’s too soon to say exactly how tariffs will impact your beauty routine, history suggests the industry will adapt. The “Lipstick Index”—a theory that beauty sales remain strong during tough economic times—suggests that small indulgences like makeup often weather economic storms. However, with inflation already squeezing budgets, higher prices on beauty products could push some items out of reach.
As the new administration finalizes its trade policies, one thing is clear: beauty enthusiasts should keep an eye on how these changes might affect their favorite products. Whether it’s a $12 moisturizer or a splurge-worthy serum, the cost of glowing skin might soon be higher than ever.
Information credits: Allure
